NE School District Enrollment Decline Requires All of Our Attention

At the last NESD board meeting on December 19th, I noticed one data point I had not yet seen, the enrollment in the district for the 2024-2025 school year, which is 1435 students. The chart above is an updated version of the one I’ve been using here with the addition of the data for the current and previous years. It indicates an impending enrollment crisis that school administration has yet to acknowledge. Every taxpayer in the district should be very concerned when they see the administration planning multi-million dollar projects and spending money as though nothing has changed in the world surrounding the school.

There are multiple reasons for enrollment declines

A declining birth rate indicates young families are choosing not to have as many children, sometimes none at all. When there are fewer young children, there will then be fewer enrolling in the primary grades at school. With each graduating class of students, fewer are enrolling in the elementary grades to replace them and overall enrollment declines at an accelerating pace. While both cultural changes and economic factors are involved here, there is absolutely nothing the school can do about it.

Local factors such as a business locating or expanding their presence in the district or shutting down and moving away can make a big difference in school enrollment as employees and their families move in or out, though, again, the school has little direct influence on that decision.

COVID caused an obvious drop, but unlike some other districts, North East never recovered.

One factor public schools often blame for their funding problems is the rapidly expanding list of excellent education alternatives, from charter schools and cyber-charter schools, to private schools, home schools and high quality online courses. Not long ago, these alternatives didn’t exist, but their rapid growth, especially when parents have fewer children and focus their attention on what’s best for their child, comparing their options, they frequently choose something other than public schools. If they are willing to compete, public schools might find this to be an opportunity to show they are as good as or better than those alternatives, though their adamant resistance to vouchers makes it appear they would rather not try.

There are other reasons, as well, but the ones listed above likely cover the majority.

Major decisions require considering the obvious factors

If you are thinking of buying a house and your employer begins laying off a lot of employees, you might consider putting your plans on hold and adjusting your spending until you have a better idea of how these changes affect you and whether there is anything you can do to affect the outcome. The school district sees their student body shrinking and without a worry in the world, launches major long term projects to prepare for a bigger and brighter future with student numbers unlikely to materialize. As taxpayers, we should all be concerned.

What can the school district do?

There are a number of actions the district can take, but we’ll save that for another article. In the meantime, these numbers will give you something to think about.

Data source for the above chart: Public School Enrollment Reports